The revolutions of 21st century are represented as a romantic struggle of oppressed against their tyrants. People go on streets to express their disgust and combat for their future. However, it is not the beginning of revolution what matters, but its end.
The first wave of revolution in Ukraine looked as hope to everyone, who saw videos or photos of it.
Unfortunately, there is a sad fact about revolutions. The number of factions who try to fight with regime does not necessarily bring positive outcome. The general image of successful revolution is that ‘more people go on streets, more chances there are for success’, but what kind of success? Success to overthrow the current government? Yes. Success of building better future? No.
In 2011, the world has seen what some people in academic world called ‘new wave of democratic revolutions’. This wave took place in the Middle East and brought the overthrow of leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
In all of these revolutions, the various factions and political elements got involved, Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, rebel and Islamist forces in Libya etc. What started as ‘struggle’ for democracy has become a great political game inside the country, tearing country apart and de facto creating small independent power zones in different parts of the state. So when this transition from ‘united struggle for democracy’ to ‘separated struggle for power’ happens?
The revolution even in the most oppressive regimes does not necessarily bring prosperity and bright future. The problem comes with the weakening of central government and decay of the country into several so – called power centers.
The best example is the situation in Ukraine since the beginning of mass protests in November last year. The real escalation of the situation started not on ‘Euromaidan’ protests, but when the Eastern Ukraine decided to separate. The central government of Kiev with its interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk showed their weakness when they stopped being under control of the situation in Crimea. The recent events in the cities of Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov show that the Interim government loses control even in those crucial regions.
The reason of this is not the ‘covert actions of Russia’ , but in protests in Maidan. The protests, which started there involved mainly people from Kiev and the West of the country, while people of the East remained silent.
It is better not to tell ‘ifs’ , but in case of participation of Ukrainian East in Euromaidan, the current situation could be completely different. Today, East of Ukraine feels excluded from Kiev, and understands that nobody cares about them. While Yatsenyuk is doing his ‘West Tour, Easterners are asking , where is our voice in the new future of Ukraine?’